Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.014034 0.015890 0.017904 0.020251 0.022912 0.025837 0.029297
2025-07-13 0.011381 0.013998 0.017080 0.020982 0.025797 0.031549 0.038958
2025-07-20 0.009860 0.012831 0.016533 0.021494 0.027978 0.036184 0.047391
2025-07-27 0.008854 0.012065 0.016257 0.022140 0.030205 0.040909 0.056249
2025-08-03 0.007813 0.011079 0.015514 0.021994 0.031251 0.044050 0.063179
2025-08-10 0.007022 0.010317 0.014953 0.021976 0.032385 0.047317 0.070494
2025-08-17 0.006265 0.009506 0.014217 0.021588 0.032889 0.049653 0.076585
2025-08-24 0.005796 0.009062 0.013953 0.021845 0.034329 0.053437 0.085141
2025-08-31 0.005295 0.008512 0.013466 0.021690 0.035085 0.056196 0.092294
2025-09-07 0.005003 0.008259 0.013409 0.022189 0.036896 0.060728 0.102668
2025-09-14 0.004500 0.007612 0.012658 0.021481 0.036645 0.061867 0.107458
2025-09-21 0.004140 0.007170 0.012200 0.021208 0.037082 0.064149 0.114354
2025-09-28 0.003727 0.006607 0.011501 0.020479 0.036694 0.065036 0.118974
2025-10-05 0.003598 0.006529 0.011628 0.021210 0.038951 0.070744 0.132835
2025-10-12 0.003446 0.006394 0.011640 0.021727 0.040853 0.075958 0.146241
2025-10-19 0.003326 0.006306 0.011726 0.022381 0.043055 0.081892 0.161543
2025-10-26 0.003106 0.006012 0.011404 0.022233 0.043708 0.084948 0.171488
2025-11-02 0.002923 0.005771 0.011163 0.022215 0.044603 0.088528 0.182781
2025-11-09 0.002711 0.005455 0.010752 0.021823 0.044714 0.090558 0.191061
2025-11-16 0.002592 0.005314 0.010669 0.022082 0.046163 0.095386 0.205619
2025-11-23 0.002437 0.005087 0.010396 0.021926 0.046731 0.098438 0.216637
2025-11-30 0.002361 0.005018 0.010438 0.022431 0.048737 0.104659 0.235140
2025-12-07 0.002172 0.004695 0.009929 0.021714 0.048038 0.105033 0.240594